2010 Gubernatorial Election Analysis
As we already know, Governor Pat Quinn won over State Senator Bill Brady, in the Governor's Race. This was surprising to many political pundits,because Senator Brady led in most of the polls. So what exactly happened? Why did Bill Brady lose this election?
Let's Break it down:
- Bill Brady's Conservative Values
- Can anyone remember the last time Illinois Residents sent a Conservative to Springfield? Former Governors Jim Edgar Jim Thompson and George Ryan were all moderates. Illinois is a moderate state that only elects moderate people. Brady's views on abortion and gay marriage negatively affected him. This was definitely the case in the Chicago Suburbs which tend to lean moderate.
-Support Within The Party
- Governor Quinn received enormous support from high-profile Democrats including President Obama. In fact, many Chicagoans received countless phone calls from Obama urging them to vote for Pat Quinn. Where was Brady's support? Obviously Illinois Republicans want to see change in their State's leadership, but there was no one to rev up the base. Brady depended too much on Tea Party support. Where were the Jim Edgar Commercials? Similar to the Edgar-Topinka Commercials in 2006. Where were the phone calls to the Republican base? The Illinois Republican Party Leaders did not show enough support.
If the Republicans chose a more moderate candidate for Governor, then they would have won the Governor's Mansion. If Judy Baar Topinka had chosen to run for Governor now instead of in 2006, she would have easily won this election.Speaking of Topinka,there's no surprise that Topinka won her State Comptroller's race. Do I smell another run at the Governor's Mansion in 2014?
State Senator Dan Rutherford finally won a statewide office. Robin Kelly ran a poor campaign against Rutherford. Kelly had zero commercials which could have benefited a no-name like herself. Plus, her being Alexi Giannoulias' Chief of Staff may not have helped her either.Rutherford's name recognition could have also played a big factor. Remember, he did run twice for Statewide Office.
There was no surprise that Lisa Madigan and Jesse White won their races in landslides. White was remembered for not signing Roland Burris' certification papers; after he was appointed as U.S. Senator by Gov. Blagojevich. Madigan was probably remembered for not endorsing Gov. Blagojevich in the last election. They have high favorable ratings among Democrats and Republicans.
Mark Kirk's win was somewhat of a surprise. With all of the Obama support ads that Giannoulias aired, many figured that democratic voters would flock to the polls for Giannoulias. However, the scandals at Broadway Bank, dominated Kirk's lies on his military record. Kirk has never been an ultra conservative and always more of a moderate.Illinois voters were familiar with Kirk and tired of Obama stepping foot in every race.Kirk was the type of candidate that would have won the Governor's mansion for the Republicans.
Overall this was a very exciting election, who knows what the next four years may bring the people of Illinois.